Towards a European Defence Market: Integration or Fragmentation?

The call for greater European defence spending has long been a point of tension within NATO, often voiced most bluntly by the United States. Recently, that pressure has materialised into a formal commitment: NATO’s 32 members, including 30 European nations, have pledged to reach 5 per cent of GDP in defence expenditure, accompanied by annual plans showing a credible path towards that objective. While countries along NATO’s eastern flank — such as Poland, Estonia, and Latvia — are relatively close to that threshold, most Western European economies remain far below. The scale of the fiscal adjustment required is significant, particularly in a context of stagnant growth, high public debt, and political resistance to tax increases. The key question now is not whether Europe will spend more on defence, but how it will spend — and whether it will do so collectively.