The Strategic Risk of Transatlantic Decoupling

Europe’s security has long depended on the assumption that American power and political will would remain constants of the international system. That assumption no longer holds. The growing unpredictability of U.S. domestic politics, coupled with the shifting global balance of attention toward the Indo-Pacific, has introduced a structural uncertainty into transatlantic relations. Europe’s dependence on American capabilities—strategic lift, intelligence, space assets, missile defence, nuclear deterrence—means that even a temporary loss of political cohesion across the Atlantic would have immediate operational consequences. Deterrence, by its nature, depends on perception: if adversaries doubt that the United States will act decisively in Europe’s defence, the entire architecture of NATO’s credibility is weakened. The danger of decoupling does not lie in a formal withdrawal from the Alliance, but in hesitation, inconsistency, or conditional engagement at the precise moment when clarity is required.