The Governance of Resilience: The Baltic as Europe’s Security Laboratory

The stability of the Baltic Sea depends not only on military assets or technological infrastructure but on a political and legal framework capable of making reactions predictable and responsibilities measurable. In an environment defined by hybrid threats, sub-threshold attacks, and ambiguity of attribution, deterrence no longer relies on the promise of invulnerability but on the ability to respond swiftly, coherently, and lawfully. The predictability of response itself becomes a form of deterrence: knowing that an attack on a cable, pipeline, or energy terminal will trigger an immediate and proportionate reaction—even without conclusive evidence—reduces the strategic value of aggression. The new security paradigm rests on three interdependent pillars—early warning, physical redundancy, and rapid decision-making—which together transform the Baltic’s geographical exposure into a form of systemic resilience grounded in cooperation, transparency, and speed.