The European Anti-Drone Imperative
Procurement Priorities, Industrial Positioning, and Doctrinal Transformation in the Age of Mass UAS Warfare
The rapid diffusion of low-cost unmanned aerial systems has altered the structure of air warfare in a way that directly challenges the economic and doctrinal foundations of European air defence. What was previously a domain defined by relatively low-density, high-value threats is now characterized by sustained saturation, where inexpensive platforms are deployed in large volumes to impose financial and operational strain on defenders. The central issue is not technological inferiority but cost asymmetry and scalability: systems designed to defeat aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic threats are being forced into engagements against targets that are orders of magnitude cheaper, more numerous, and more expendable. This dynamic, observed systematically in Ukraine since 2022 and reinforced by the March 2026 Iran conflict, indicates a structural transformation of the threat environment rather than a temporary anomaly. European defence architectures, procurement models, and industrial supply chains are therefore confronted with a misalignment between the economics of defence and the economics of attack, with direct implications for deterrence credibility and operational sustainability.
This report examines that misalignment through a structured analysis of the evolving anti-drone problem in Europe. It begins by defining the operational characteristics of mass UAS warfare and quantifying the cost asymmetry that underpins it, before analysing the doctrinal limitations of existing air defence systems. It then maps the current European capability landscape, identifying where adaptation is occurring and where gaps persist, with particular attention to multinational initiatives and procurement frameworks. The analysis proceeds to assess industrial positioning across the European defence base, including both established primes and emerging actors, and evaluates the role of directed energy technologies as a potential long-term solution to the cost-exchange problem. The report also examines the institutional mechanisms shaping procurement decisions and the ongoing transfer of operational knowledge from Ukraine to European partners. It concludes with targeted recommendations for procurement authorities and an analytical framework for monitoring industrial and contractual signals relevant to this capability area.