The Credibility of Deterrence Lies in Automatic Mechanism

Deterrence is not a mathematical function of the number of forces deployed or the size of arsenals. It is, above all, a psychological and political construct that resides in the mind of the adversary. Its effectiveness depends on a firm and unquestionable conviction that any act of aggression will generate a response that is certain, immediate, and inexorable. Possessing the means to retaliate is not enough: the potential aggressor must be persuaded that those means will be used without hesitation, as if triggered by an automatic mechanism. It is precisely this perception that renders the costs of aggression prohibitive and discourages its initiation.