Special Issue of DFM: Russia’s Enduring Threat to Europe #2
The second issue of Defence Finance Monitor’s Special Series, “Russia’s Enduring Threat to Europe #2: Strategic Time and Depth,” examines how the Russian state embeds endurance into its strategic, operational, and institutional fabric. The central premise is that Russian power is not defined by technological breakthroughs or quantitative strength, but by the systematic conversion of time into a strategic resource. Across military planning, industrial organization, and doctrinal evolution, Moscow constructs depth rather than speed, resilience rather than decisiveness. The Russian approach to warfare and deterrence unfolds through a layered logic: conflicts are not episodes to be resolved, but processes to be managed; balance, not victory, defines stability. This orientation produces a form of structural persistence that allows Russia to remain a continuous threat even when constrained by losses, sanctions, or economic limits. The endurance of its military posture thus reflects a deeper conception of strategic time—one that turns duration itself into an instrument of power.
Strategic Time and Depth: Russia’s TV/TVD Architecture and the Operational Art of Endurance
In Russian strategic thought, time is not an obstacle to be overcome but a resource to be exploited. The very notion of victory is inseparable from the management of duration, resilience, and rhythm. Rather than seeking rapid, decisive outcomes, Russia plans for conflicts as long processes whose length becomes an asset. This conception of “strategic time” redefines power: the side able to sustain operations, regenerate resources, and adapt over extended periods is ultimately dominant. Western militaries, conditioned by short political and budgetary cycles, regard time as a cost; Russia treats it as a variable of advantage. The ability to survive, reorganize, and re-enter the fight is embedded in institutional design, industrial planning, and doctrine. The result is a model of war in which patience and continuity replace velocity and surprise as core instruments of power. This understanding of time explains why the Russian threat cannot be defused quickly: it is structurally persistent, founded on a system capable of turning the very passage of time into an element of deterrence.
The EW–Integrated Air Defence–C2 Triangle: Russia’s Long-Horizon Denial Architecture
The endurance of the Russian military threat to Europe is rooted not in numerical superiority or technological surprise, but in the construction of an architecture of denial designed to persist through time. This structure, built upon the integration of electronic warfare (EW), layered air defence, and command-and-control (C2) systems, functions as a long-duration mechanism of deterrence and attrition. Its purpose is not to destroy an adversary in short bursts of violence but to degrade, delay, and exhaust, transforming the management of time itself into a strategic asset. Each of these three pillars performs a distinct role: EW disrupts the adversary’s capacity to see and coordinate; air defence imposes costs on every attempt to penetrate; C2 binds the whole system into a network capable of continuous adaptation. The result is an ecosystem of resilience rather than dominance. Where Western militaries focus on temporary superiority, Russia’s model is structured to survive, regenerate, and remain dangerous indefinitely. This temporal depth of defence explains why the Russian threat endures even when resources fluctuate or operations stall: the architecture is designed not for victory, but for persistence.
Correlation of Forces as a Planning Engine: Why Russian Risk is Structurally Persistent
The concept of the correlation of forces lies at the core of Russian strategic logic, functioning as both an analytical method and a worldview. It is not a static measurement of power but a continuous assessment of equilibrium across military, economic, social, and psychological dimensions. In this framework, the state’s security depends less on superiority than on the ability to maintain balance within an ever-changing environment. The correlation of forces defines stability as a dynamic relationship between competing systems, measured not by victory or defeat but by resilience over time. It transforms uncertainty into a calculable process: every shift in technology, morale, or production alters the balance and demands adjustment. Because this method is cyclical and self-correcting, it ensures the endurance of Russian strategic behaviour. The system is designed to absorb shocks, recalibrate, and restore parity. This capacity for regeneration is what makes Russian risk structural and permanent: as long as the correlation of forces can be managed, the state perceives itself as secure, regardless of external fluctuations or temporary losses.