Russia as a “Persistent but Manageable” Threat: How U.S. Strategy Is Reshaping Europe’s Defence-Industrial Demand
The 2026 US National Defense Strategy frames European defence-industrial scale as a prerequisite for sustaining deterrence against Russia.
The 2026 US National Defense Strategy, released on 23 January, is not merely a policy document; it is a market-shaping signal for how transatlantic defence demand is likely to be structured in the next cycle. Its core move is to frame Europe’s security problem—Russia as a persistent, long-duration threat—within a broader American requirement: preserving strategic flexibility for homeland defence and Indo-Pacific deterrence. That logic immediately raises the central question for investors and defence-industrial leadership: whether Europe can convert its economic scale into operational readiness and, critically, into sustained defence-industrial output. The answer will shape US posture decisions, allied procurement architecture, and the durability of the deterrence model underpinning NATO’s eastern flank. In this analysis, we examine these dynamics in depth, focusing on how US strategic priorities are reshaping Europe’s deterrence requirements and defence-industrial investment case.