NATO–EU Strategic Priority: Defence Industrial Base & Munitions Readiness
The emergence of large-scale war in Europe has redefined the strategic centrality of industrial capacity as a determining factor of deterrence credibility. The conflict in Ukraine demonstrated that high-intensity operations cannot be sustained without deep reserves of ammunition, explosives, propellants and missile components, exposing the gap between Russian wartime production and the far more limited European output. This imbalance carries structural implications for alliance security, because deterrence depends not solely on advanced platforms but on the ability to replace them and maintain operational tempo under pressure. NATO and the European Union have therefore elevated Defence Industrial Base Strengthening and Munitions Readiness to the level of core strategic priority, linking credibility in collective defence to the existence of a resilient, scalable and geographically diversified industrial base. This priority is driven by the recognition that future crises may require simultaneous support to Ukraine, defence of the Eastern Flank and responses to broader geopolitical shocks. It also reflects consensus that Europe’s defence architecture cannot rely indefinitely on external suppliers of explosives, energetics or semiconductors. The return of industrial policy to the security domain marks a structural shift: the DIB is now treated as an operational enabler, a strategic asset and a vulnerability that adversaries could exploit. The associated timelines, spanning the 2024–2030 horizon, indicate an expectation of prolonged instability requiring sustained capacity expansion rather than emergency measures. In this context, industrial resilience is viewed not as an auxiliary function but as a constitutive element of alliance deterrence. The analysis that follows examines how this priority is shaped, implemented and constrained across political, operational, industrial and financial domains.
The report is organised to reconstruct the full chain linking political intent to operational requirements and industrial execution. It begins with a strategic framing section that analyses how NATO and EU institutions define the priority, which documents underpin it and which threat perceptions — particularly those related to Russia’s escalation patterns and supply-chain vulnerabilities — drive the recalibration of allied doctrine. The second part examines the operational translation of this priority, focusing on joint planning, high-readiness forces, logistics integration and the alignment of land, air, maritime, space and cyber demands with industrial surge capacity. The third section addresses capability needs, identifying precise requirements across energetics, solid-rocket propulsion, industrial tooling, workforce pipelines and enabling technologies. This is followed by an implementation section detailing how EU regulations, NATO mechanisms and national policies interact through instruments such as ASAP, EDIRPA, EDIP, multi-year contracts and industrial cooperation platforms. The subsequent analysis isolates structural bottlenecks, including shortages of TNT and RDX, machine-tool constraints, workforce gaps, regulatory delays and dependencies on non-allied suppliers. The report then examines implications for companies, research institutions, technology clusters and capital providers, highlighting how incentives, procurement rules and funding schemes reshape the industrial landscape. The overall structure thus connects political drivers, operational demands, technical capabilities, administrative tools and market dynamics, offering a comprehensive assessment of how the Defence Industrial Base and Munitions Readiness priority is being constructed and where its constraints lie.