Historical Patterns of Defence Spending Cycles
The purpose of this series of reports is to equip entrepreneurs and investors with a structured framework for interpreting the political foundations of defence finance. Defence and dual-use industries are not governed by consumer preferences or market competition alone, but above all by political decisions, strategic priorities, and fiscal constraints. These decisions follow recurring historical patterns shaped by wars, rivalries, alliances, and institutional arrangements. By combining historical, theoretical, and structural analysis, each report provides interpretative grids and reference maps that allow readers to distinguish between transient events and long-term shifts. The aim is to clarify the logics that underpin cycles of military investment and to make them usable for practical decision-making in financial and industrial contexts.
Alongside these structural inquiries, the series also offers analyses of contemporary developments. Current political behaviours—whether of parties, governments, public opinion, or social movements—are examined against the background of established patterns, enabling a clearer understanding of their significance. In this way, historical and theoretical insights converge with present-day observation to create a coherent analytical tool: a resource for decision-makers and investors who must navigate both the enduring structures and the immediate dynamics of defence politics and finance.
This report examines the historical patterns of defence spending cycles, tracing how governments have repeatedly expanded and contracted military budgets in response to wars, strategic rivalries, and fiscal pressures. From the unprecedented mobilisations of the World Wars, through the sustained but fluctuating build-ups of the Cold War, to the post-1991 retrenchment and the renewed expansion in the twenty-first century, defence expenditure has followed rhythms that reveal enduring structural logics. By analysing these cycles in their historical depth, the report highlights the mechanisms—geopolitical shocks, political coalitions, institutional constraints—that condition their onset, duration, and decline. For entrepreneurs and investors, the value lies not in recounting past events for their own sake, but in extracting durable interpretative grids that make it possible to read today’s increases in defence budgets as part of a broader and recurrent logic rather than as isolated phenomena.