From the Cold War to Today: Defence Spending Trajectories and Crisis-Driven Peaks
Is the emerging Cold War destined to replicate the structural dynamics of the one that defined the second half of the twentieth century, and if so, what lessons from that era can inform decision-making today? The confrontation between NATO and Russia, reinforced by the broader strategic rivalry with China, raises the question of whether the forces that once shaped the defence sector remain valid in the twenty-first century. Can the historical record of the Cold War—its strategic doctrines, industrial transformations, and financial consequences—offer investors a framework for interpreting current developments and anticipating future trajectories? And to what extent does a rigorous study of that earlier period sharpen our understanding of the signals now emanating from NATO capitals? These are the questions that must be confronted if we are to grasp the implications of this new strategic landscape for industry, markets, and security.