From Hype to Programme Entry: Identifying Real Adoption of Emerging Technologies in NATO–EU Frameworks
An institutional evidence framework for distinguishing R&D visibility from capability integration in Allied defence programmes
The central analytical question is not which emerging technologies are attracting attention, but which are entering structured NATO and EU programme architectures with observable integration pathways. In Allied defence ecosystems, adoption is not defined by media prominence, venture capital flows, or citation intensity, but by codified prioritisation, translation into funded instruments, demonstrator requirements, interoperability standards, and procurement-adjacent governance. By tracing official documentation from NATO EDT policy and DIANA challenge structures to European Defence Fund development actions and industrial-readiness instruments, this analysis replaces visibility proxies with institutional evidence. The objective is to provide investors, Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers, and policy stakeholders with a replicable method for identifying where technologies are transitioning from research orbit to capability maturation within NATO–EU programme logic.