Of all the industrial bottlenecks invoked in the European rearmament debate, heavy forging is the one that most readily invites a simple arithmetic. Presses and ring mills are large, expensive and slow to install; the number of them on the continent is finite and broadly known; and it is tempting to conclude that the capacity available to a European military engine programme is whatever fraction of that installed base is not already occupied. On this view the policy problem is one of tonnage, and the policy instrument is capital: fund more equipment, and more defence-relevant output follows.