Europe’s Midstream Gap in Critical Raw Materials
Europe’s exposure in critical raw materials is no longer primarily a question of access to resources, but of industrial capacity to refine, separate, convert, and qualify those resources into defence- and dual-use inputs. The midstream layer is where sovereignty is effectively decided, because it is the stage at which raw materials become usable metals, alloys, powders, oxides, and certified components for aerospace, electronics, munitions, and advanced manufacturing. This layer is capital-intensive, slow to scale, highly regulated, and concentrated in a small number of non-allied jurisdictions. As a result, upstream initiatives alone are insufficient to guarantee readiness or resilience. Without adequate midstream capacity, Europe remains vulnerable to supply interruptions even when raw materials are available. The strategic risk is therefore structural rather than cyclical. This report addresses that structural constraint as a core element of European defence-industrial autonomy.
The report explains in detail how midstream processing functions for tungsten, titanium, gallium, germanium, and rare earth elements, identifying where Europe retains capacity and where dependencies persist. It maps the industrial actors that operate or are developing refining, separation, recycling, and metallurgical conversion facilities relevant to defence and dual-use supply chains, and clarifies their ownership and strategic role. It analyses where bottlenecks arise not from scarcity of raw material, but from limited processing capability, qualification cycles, energy intensity, or regulatory constraints. It then assesses how these constraints shape realistic timelines for capacity expansion between 2025 and 2035. To support this analysis, the report includes four structured tables: the European Midstream Industrial Asset Map, which identifies operating and planned facilities and their position in the value chain; the Strategic Dependency Indicators, which quantify concentration and vulnerability using cited data; the Technical Bottleneck Analysis, which links each material to its critical processing constraint; Strategic Capacity Forecast 2025–2035, with projections on the evolution of Europe’s industrial capacity and sovereignty over the next decade
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