The Strategic Impact of Energetics Production Constraints
Across Europe, defence institutions are reassessing how readiness and deterrence are sustained in an environment where industrial constraints have become as consequential as operational doctrine. Among these constraints, the production of energetics has emerged as a structural bottleneck that shapes every aspect of capability planning, from stockpile regeneration to procurement timelines and the credibility of sustained firepower. This constraint does not concern advanced platforms but the fundamental industrial capacity required to supply propellants and high explosives, without which Europe cannot convert manufacturing inputs into usable munitions. The war in Ukraine exposed vulnerabilities that had been masked by decades of low demand, revealing how underinvestment, environmental restrictions and fragmented governance have eroded a capability central to European security. This Special Report examines the energetics bottleneck as a strategic variable, analyses its implications for readiness and industrial resilience, and outlines the conditions under which Europe can rebuild the depth required for credible deterrence. As the opening instalment of the DFM Strategic Bottlenecks Series it sets the analytical baseline for understanding the constraints that will shape Europe’s defence posture in the decade ahead and offers readers the opportunity to follow a structured assessment of the industrial foundations underpinning Europe’s security.
This report offers a comprehensive and methodologically rigorous analysis of the energetics constraint and its impact on European defence readiness. It examines the structure of the supply chain, the nature of the dependencies involved, the operational consequences of limited throughput, and the evolving policy landscape at EU and national levels. Readers will find a level of detail, clarity and analytical depth designed to support strategic decision-making, long-term planning and informed assessment of Europe’s defence-industrial resilience. The full report provides not only a precise reconstruction of the bottleneck, but also an integrated evaluation of its strategic implications and the range of credible pathways available to address it. By offering a structured, evidence-based understanding of one of the most critical constraints in the European defence ecosystem, it enables institutions, analysts and industry leaders to align decisions with the realities of production capacity, operational requirements and future risk.
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