Correlation of Forces as a Planning Engine: Why Russian Risk is Structurally Persistent

The concept of the correlation of forces lies at the core of Russian strategic logic, functioning as both an analytical method and a worldview. It is not a static measurement of power but a continuous assessment of equilibrium across military, economic, social, and psychological dimensions. In this framework, the state’s security depends less on superiority than on the ability to maintain balance within an ever-changing environment. The correlation of forces defines stability as a dynamic relationship between competing systems, measured not by victory or defeat but by resilience over time. It transforms uncertainty into a calculable process: every shift in technology, morale, or production alters the balance and demands adjustment. Because this method is cyclical and self-correcting, it ensures the endurance of Russian strategic behaviour. The system is designed to absorb shocks, recalibrate, and restore parity. This capacity for regeneration is what makes Russian risk structural and permanent: as long as the correlation of forces can be managed, the state perceives itself as secure, regardless of external fluctuations or temporary losses.