Cold War 2.0 and the Axis of Upheaval
The defence-industrial logic of systemic multi-theatre rivalry
The strategic problem addressed in this report is not whether the present international system should be labelled a new Cold War. The more material question is whether doctrine, procurement, sanctions, export controls, munitions demand, industrial capacity and capital allocation are already moving according to the logic of a prolonged, multi-theatre confrontation. Ukraine, the Red Sea, the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific and the technology-control contest are often analysed as separate crises. This report examines whether they are better understood as connected pressure points within a wider systemic rivalry involving the United States, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and the Western alliance system.
The report is structured around four analytical blocks. The first reconstructs “Cold War 2.0” as a historical-strategic framework centred on long-term U.S.-China rivalry. The second examines the “Axis of Upheaval” as a political-operational framework focused on selective coordination among China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. The third tests both frameworks against official doctrine, intelligence assessments and the strongest critical objections. The fourth translates the evidence into Defence Finance Monitor’s core field of analysis: munitions depletion, defence-industrial capacity, export controls, sanctions architecture, strategic materials, semiconductor restrictions, thematic defence exposure and the financial implications of a long, industrially intensive rivalry.