Affordable Interceptors and the Economics of Mass Deterrence: Industrial Models for Low-Cost Air Defence in Europe
Industrial capacity, procurement coordination, and supply-chain control as the foundations for restoring a sustainable cost-exchange ratio in European air defence.
Over the past decade, the evolution of military technologies has profoundly altered the economics of air defence. The rapid proliferation of drones, loitering munitions, and other low-cost aerial systems has introduced an operational dynamic in which quantity can compensate for technological sophistication. Under these conditions, the central challenge is no longer simply the ability to intercept a single incoming threat, but the economic and industrial sustainability of defensive operations over time. When defensive systems designed to counter advanced aircraft or complex missiles are used against large numbers of inexpensive platforms, the cost relationship between attack and defence can deteriorate quickly. The problem therefore extends beyond technology into the realms of industrial production, logistics, and finance. It concerns the capacity to manufacture, stockpile, and replenish interceptors in sufficient quantities to sustain defensive operations during prolonged campaigns.
This report approaches the issue from a strategic and industrial perspective, focusing on the concept of “affordable interceptors”—interception systems designed from the outset to be produced at scale and at sustainable cost. The report is structured in several sections. The first defines the strategic problem of the cost-exchange imbalance in contemporary air defence. The second explains what “affordable” means in industrial and manufacturing terms. Subsequent sections examine the emerging industrial model based on modular design, distributed production, and supply-chain control; identify the principal bottlenecks in missile manufacturing; and analyse how production volume and learning effects influence costs. The report also explores the role of European procurement frameworks and the financial instruments required to support expansion of manufacturing capacity. It concludes by assessing the implications of scalable interceptor production for European deterrence and industrial readiness.